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Smart Money Concepts, positioning, seasonality and session timing — written the way the terminal reads them, with the numbers behind every claim.

Showing posts tagged #interest-ratesAll posts →
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Oct 28, 2026 5 min read

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision October 2026: A Hike to 2.50% Into Falling Jobs, and USD/CAD

The Bank of Canada decides today, 28 October 2026, at 13:45 UTC with its Monetary Policy Report, and the market has swung from a cut to a hike in three weeks: swaps price a move from 2.25% to 2.50% at roughly 75–85% after headline inflation rose to 3.1% on gasoline, even though core measures eased to 1.8–1.9% and the economy lost 68,000 jobs in September. This guide explains the dilemma, what the MPR will say about oil, the scenarios for USD/CAD with the Fed four hours later, and the levels that matter.

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Oct 28 6 min read

Fed Pause Explained: What Today's Hold at 3.75–4.00% Means for the Dollar, Gold and Stocks

The Federal Reserve is expected to pause today, 28 October 2026, leaving the target range at 3.75–4.00% with a hold priced above 90%. A pause is not a pivot: September inflation was 3.7%, payrolls rose only 29,000, the last minutes said most participants saw another increase before year-end, and every one of 100 economists surveyed expects a December hike. This guide explains what a Fed pause actually is, why this one is a skip rather than an end, how the dollar, gold and equities have behaved after past pauses, and what to watch at 18:00 and 18:30 UTC.

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Oct 27 6 min read

Fed Rate Decision October 2026: A Hold Is Priced, December Is the Trade

The Fed rate decision on 28 October 2026 is the most searched event in forex this week, and the decision itself is close to settled: a hold at 3.75–4.00% is priced at around 90%. What is not settled is December, where a second hike of the year is priced near 80%, and that is what Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference will move. This guide covers what has changed since the September hike, what the market has priced, the four scenarios for the dollar, gold and NAS100, and a plan for the 18:00 UTC release.

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Oct 26 6 min read

FOMC Meeting: What It Is, How Markets React and How to Trade Around It

An FOMC meeting is the eight-times-a-year event at which the Federal Reserve sets US interest rates, and it moves every dollar pair, gold and the indices more than any scheduled release except payrolls. This guide explains what the committee decides and publishes, the timeline of an FOMC day to the minute, why the statement and the press conference so often move markets in opposite directions, the typical reaction sizes, and a plan that avoids the first move and trades the second.

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Oct 24 6 min read

Forex Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rates, Inflation and Economic Growth

Fundamental analysis in forex reduces to three drivers and one transmission mechanism: inflation and growth set what a central bank is likely to do, the expected interest-rate path is what the currency actually trades on, and the differential between two countries' paths is what moves the pair. This guide explains each driver, how they feed the rate path, how to read the differential rather than the level, and the two situations where the model inverts.

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Oct 15 5 min read

How Interest Rates Affect Forex Currency Pairs

Interest rates are the engine under every major currency pair: capital moves toward the currency that pays more, and the pair follows the difference, not the level. This guide explains the mechanism from central-bank decision to exchange rate, why expectations move pairs before the actual change, how to read a rate differential chart, what carry and swap mean for a position, and the moments when the rule breaks.

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