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Smart Money Concepts, positioning, seasonality and session timing — written the way the terminal reads them, with the numbers behind every claim.

Showing posts tagged #inflationAll posts →
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Oct 28, 2026 5 min read

US Q3 GDP Advance Estimate and Core PCE on 29 October 2026: What to Expect and How to Trade It

Tomorrow, 29 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC, the US publishes the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September PCE inflation report in the same release, twenty hours after the Fed and forty-five minutes before the ECB. Consensus is 3.2% annualised growth with forecasts spread from 1.5% to the Atlanta Fed's 3.5%, and core PCE at 0.3% on the month and 3.1% on the year, up from 3.0%. This guide explains what each number measures, why the combination matters more than either, the four outcomes for the dollar, gold and NAS100, and a plan for a release sandwiched between two central banks.

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Oct 27 6 min read

Oil Price Shock October 2026: Brent at $117 and What It Means for Forex

Brent crude closed at $116.72 on 23 October 2026, its highest in six months, after Houthi strikes on Saudi energy sites and reports of renewed US action against Iran after the 3 November midterms. The oil price is now the single biggest driver of forex: it feeds inflation, lifts Treasury yields toward 5%, keeps a December Fed hike priced, and sorts currencies into exporters and importers. This guide explains the transmission, which pairs move and which way, and how to trade a market where the catalyst is a headline rather than a data release.

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Oct 24 6 min read

Forex Fundamental Analysis: Interest Rates, Inflation and Economic Growth

Fundamental analysis in forex reduces to three drivers and one transmission mechanism: inflation and growth set what a central bank is likely to do, the expected interest-rate path is what the currency actually trades on, and the differential between two countries' paths is what moves the pair. This guide explains each driver, how they feed the rate path, how to read the differential rather than the level, and the two situations where the model inverts.

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