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Oct 29, 2026 6 min read

ECB Meeting Preview: Why Lagarde Will Hold at 2.50% Today, and How She Can Point to a December Hike Without Promising One

The ECB announces its decision at 13:15 UTC on 29 October 2026 and is expected to leave the deposit rate at 2.50% after hikes in June and September. The market has about 21 basis points priced for 17 December and 64 of 73 economists expect a move then. This guide explains why the Council will wait, the three ways the statement and the 13:45 press conference can handle December, what France, energy and Friday's data do to the choice, and what each version means for EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and the euro crosses.

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Oct 29 7 min read

EUR/USD Forecast Today: Stuck Between 1.1110 and 1.1160 Before the ECB Decision, and How to Trade the Break

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1135 on 29 October 2026, back inside a fifty-pip box after bouncing from 1.1110, the lowest since May 2025, to 1.1160 while Chair Warsh spoke. The ECB publishes its decision at 13:15 UTC, forty-five minutes after US GDP and PCE. This guide maps the range, explains why the euro has fallen even though a December ECB hike is priced, sets out three reaction paths for the afternoon, and gives a plan for trading the break rather than guessing it.

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