Macro
Oct 28, 2026 5 min read
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision October 2026: A Hike to 2.50% Into Falling Jobs, and USD/CAD
The Bank of Canada decides today, 28 October 2026, at 13:45 UTC with its Monetary Policy Report, and the market has swung from a cut to a hike in three weeks: swaps price a move from 2.25% to 2.50% at roughly 75–85% after headline inflation rose to 3.1% on gasoline, even though core measures eased to 1.8–1.9% and the economy lost 68,000 jobs in September. This guide explains the dilemma, what the MPR will say about oil, the scenarios for USD/CAD with the Fed four hours later, and the levels that matter.
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